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Assessing the causal effect of air pollution on risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection
Thomas Byrne
Annalan Navaratnam
Sarah Beale
Yamina Boukari
Vincent Nguyen
Wing Lam Erica Fong
Isobel Braithwaite
Ellen Fragaszy
Cyril Geismar
Jana Kovar
Parth Patel
Madhumita Shrotri
Alexei Yavlinsky
Andrew Hayward
Haneen Khreis
Robert Aldridge
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.10.26.23297598
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.10.26.23297598v1
Introduction Emerging evidence suggests association of air pollution exposure with risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, but many of these findings are limited by study design, lack of individual-level covariate data or are specific to certain subpopulations. We aim to evaluate causal effects of air pollution on risk of infection, whilst overcoming these limitations. Methods Concentrations for black carbon(BC), particulate matter 10(PM10), particulate matter 2.5(PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide(NO2) and oxides of nitrogen(NOx) from the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and Effect of Low-level Air Pollution: A Study in Europe (ELAPSE) were linked to postcodes of 53,683 Virus Watch study participants. The primary outcome was first SARS-CoV-2 infection, between 1st September 2020 and 30th April 2021. Regression analysis used modified Poisson with robust estimates, clustered by household, adjusting for individual (e.g., age, sex, ethnicity) and environmental covariates(e.g., population density, region) to estimate total and direct effects. Results Single pollutant analysis showed the direct effect of higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection with increased exposure to PM2.5(RR1.11,95%CI 1.08;1.15), PM10(RR1.06,95%CI 1.04;1.09), NO2(RR1.04,95%CI 1.04;1.05) and NOx(RR1.02,95%CI 1.02;1.02) per 1µg/m3 increment with DEFRA 2015-19 data. Sensitivity analyses altering covariates, exposure window and modelled air pollution data source produced similar estimates. Higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 per 10-5m-1 increment of BC (RR1.86, 95%CI 1.62;2.14) was observed using ELAPSE data. Conclusion Long term exposure to higher concentrations of air pollutions increases the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, highlighting that adverse health effects of air pollution is not only limited to non-communicable diseases.
bioRxiv
26-10-2023
Preimpreso
Inglés
Público en general
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
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