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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8199| Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices | |
| Joe Hilton Matt Keeling | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028167 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028167v1 | |
| The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has the potential for global spread, infecting large numbers in all countries. In this case, estimating the country-specific basic reproductive ratio is a vital first step in public-health planning. The basic reproductive ratio (R0) is determined by both the nature of pathogen and the network of contacts through which the disease can spread - with this network determined by socio-demographics including age-structure and household composition. Here we focus on the age-structured transmission within the population, using data from China to inform age-dependent susceptibility and synthetic age-mixing matrices to inform the contact network. This allows us to determine the country-specific basic reproductive ratio as a multiplicative scaling of the value from China. We predict that R0 will be highest across Eastern Europe and Japan, and lowest across Africa, Central America and South-Western Asia. This pattern is largely driven by the ratio of children to older adults in each country and the observed propensity of clinical cases in the elderly. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 27-02-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices.pdf | 893.71 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |