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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8947| Global and local mobility as a barometer for COVID-19 dynamics | |
| Kevin Linka Alain Goriely Ellen Kuhl | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.13.20130658 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20130658v2 | |
| The spreading of infectious diseases including COVID-19 depends on human interactions. In an environment where behavioral patterns and physical contacts are constantly evolving according to new governmental regulations, measuring these interactions is a major challenge. Mobility has emerged as an indicator for human activity and, implicitly, for human interactions. Here we study the coupling between mobility and COVID-19 dynamics and show that variations in global air traffic and local driving mobility can be used to stratify different disease phases. For ten European countries, our study shows maximal correlation between driving mobility and disease dynamics with a time lag of 14.6 ± 5.6 days. Our findings suggests that local mobility can serve as a quantitative metric to forecast future reproduction numbers and identify the stages of the pandemic when mobility and reproduction become decorrelated.
Competing Interest Statement
The authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding Statement
This work was supported by a DAAD Fellowship to Kevin Linka, by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant EP/R020205/1 to Alain Goriely, and by a Stanford Bio-X IIP seed grant and the National Institutes of Health Grant U01 HL119578 to Ellen Kuhl. This work was also undertaken, in part, as a contribution to the Rapid Assistance in Modelling the Pandemic RAMP initiative, coordinated by the Royal Society for which Alain Goriely is a task leader.
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I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
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All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.
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I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
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I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 11-08-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global and local mobility as a barometer for COVID-19 dynamics.pdf | 10.5 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |