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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8923| How far Covid19 virus spread can be curbed by relaxing lockdown in different stages? -A study in Indian scenario | |
| Arindom Chakraborty Kalyan Das | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.11.20129023 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.11.20129023v1 | |
| After the emergence of the first cases in Wuhan, China, the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection has rapidly spread out to other provinces, neighboring countries and finally has become a global terror. It is indeed a matter of serious concern to study the transmission dynamics of this virus. The potential and severity of an outbreak and providing critical information for identifying the type of disease interventions and intensity can be well understood by the unknown basic reproduction number. A stochastic model can be used to estimate this number with possible safeguard on uncertainties. It is essential to assess how the expensive, resource-intensive measures can contribute to the prevention and control of the 2019-nCoV infection and how long they should be maintained. A short-term forecast of incidences are often of high priority. The challenge is to forecast unseen “future” simulated data for three different scenarios at some time points. We estimate current levels of transmissibility, over variable time points under different levels of interventions and use that to forecast near-future incidence. The forecasted values of incidence can be used for determining the near future mortality also. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 12-06-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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