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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8875| Scrutinizing the heterogeneous spreading of COVID-19 outbreak in Brazilian territory | |
| Rafael Marques da Silva Carlos Fábio de Oliveira Mendes Cesar Manchein | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.05.20123604 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.05.20123604v1 | |
| Abstract After the spread of COVID-19 out of China, the evolution of the pandemic shows remarkable similarities and differences among countries across the world. Eventually, such characteristics are also observed between different regions of the same country. Herewith, we study the heterogeneous spreading of the confirmed infected cases and deaths by the COVID-19 until May 30th, 2020, in the Brazilian territory, which has been seen as the current epicenter of the pandemic in South America. Our first set of results is related to the similarities and it shows that: (i) a power-law growth of the cumulative number of infected people is observed for federative units of the five regions of Brazil; and (ii) the Distance Correlation (DC) calculated between the time series of the most affected federative units and the curve that describes the evolution of the pandemic in Brazil remains about 1 in most of the time, while such quantity calculated for the federative units with a low incidence of newly infected people remains about 0.95. In the second set of results, we focus on the heterogeneous distribution of the confirmed cases and deaths, which is demonstrated by the fact that only three regions concentrate 92% of the cases. By applying the epidemiological SIRD model we estimated the effective reproduction number ℛe during the pandemic evolution and found that: (i) the mean value of ℛe for the eight most affected federative units in Brazil is about 2; (ii) the current value of ℛe for Brazil is greater than 1, which indicates that the epidemic peak is far; and (iii) Ceará was the only federative unit for which the current ℛe < 1. Based on these findings, we projected the effects of increase or decrease the effective reproduction number and concluded that if the value of ℛe increases 20%, not only the peak might grow at least 40% but also its occurrence might be anticipated, which hastens the collapse of the public health care system. In all cases, to keep the effective reproduction number 20% below the current one can save thousands of people in the long term. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 09-06-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| Scrutinizing the heterogeneous spreading of COVID-19 outbreak in Brazilian territory.pdf | 1.09 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |