Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8814| Analysis of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Japan on the basis of an SIQR model | |
| Takashi Odagaki | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.02.20117341 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.02.20117341v1 | |
| The SIR model is modified, which may be called an SIQR model, so as to be appropriate for COVID-19 which has the following characteristics: [1] a long incubation period, [2] transmission of the virus by asymptomatic patients and [3] quarantine of patients identified through PCR testing. It is assumed that the society consists of four compartments; susceptibles (S), infecteds at large (simply called infecteds) (I), quarantined patients (Q) and recovered individuals (R), and the time evolution of the pandemic is described by a set of ordinary differential equations. It is shown that the quarantine rate can be determined from the time dependence of the daily confirmed new cases, from which the number of the infecteds at large can be estimated. The number of daily confirmed new cases is shown to be proportional to the number of infecteds a characteristic time earlier, and the infection rate and quarantine rate are determined for the period from mid-February to mid-April in Japan, and transmission characteristics of the initial stages of the outbreak in Japan are analyzed. The effectiveness of different measures is discussed for controlling the outbreak and it is shown that identifying patients through PCR testing and isolating them in a quarantine is more effective than lockdown measures aimed at inhibiting social interactions of the general population. An effective reproduction number for infecteds at large is introduced which is appropriate to epidemics controlled by quarantine measures. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 05-06-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Analysis of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Japan on the basis of an SIQR model.pdf | 445.94 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |