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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8804| A Fractal Viewpoint to COVID-19 Infection | |
| Oscar Sotolongo-Costa José Weberszpil Oscar Sotolongo_Grau | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.03.20120576 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.03.20120576v2 | |
| One of the central tools to control the COVID-19 pandemics is the knowledge of its spreading dynamics. Here we develop a fractal model capable of describe this dynamics, in term of daily new cases, and provide quantitative criteria for some predictions. We propose a fractal dynamical model using conformed derivative and fractal time scale. A Burr-XII shaped solution of the fractal-like equation is obtained. The model is tested using data from several countries, showing that a single function is able to describe very different shapes of the outbreak. The diverse behavior of the outbreak on those countries is presented and discussed. Moreover, a criterion to determine the existence of the pandemic peak and a expression to find the time to reach herd immunity are also obtained. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 17-06-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A Fractal Viewpoint to COVID-19 Infection.pdf | 356.66 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |