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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8761| A generalized SEIRD model with implicit social distancing mechanism: a Bayesian approach for the identification of the spread of COVID-19 with applications in Brazil and Rio de Janeiro state | |
| Diego Volpatto Anna Claudia Resende Lucas dos Anjos João Vitor de O. Silva Claudia Mazza Dias Regina Almeida Sandra Malta | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.30.20117283 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.30.20117283v2 | |
| We develop a generalized SEIRD model considering social distancing measures to describe the spread of COVID-19 with applications in Brazil. We assume uncertain scenarios with limited testing capacity, lack of reliable data, under-reporting of cases, and restricted testing policy. We developed a Bayesian framework for the identification of model parameters and uncertainty quantification of the model outcomes. A sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most significant parameters on either the cumulative numbers of confirmed and death, or the effective reproduction number. We show the model parameter related to social distancing measures is one of the most influential. Different relaxation strategies of social distancing measures are then investigated to determine which strategies are viable and less hazardous to the population. The considered scenario of abrupt social distancing relaxation implemented after the occurrence of the peak of positively diagnosed cases can prolong the epidemic, with a significant increase of the projected numbers of confirmed and death cases. A worse scenario occur if the social distancing relaxation policy is implemented before evidence of the epidemiological control, indicating the importance of the proper choice of when to start relaxing social distancing measures. The employed approach and subsequent analysis applied over the Brazilian scenarios may be used to other locations. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 12-10-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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