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SIR-PID: A Proportional-Integral-Derivative Controller for COVID-19 Outbreak Containment
Aldo Ianni
Nicola Rossi
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.30.20117556
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.30.20117556v1
Ongoing social restrictions, as distancing and lockdown, adopted by many countries for contrasting the COVID-19 epidemic spread, try to find a trade-off between induced economic crisis, healthcare system collapse and costs in terms of human lives. Applying and removing restrictions on a system with uncontrollable inertia, as represented by an epidemic outbreak, may create critical instabilities, overshoots and strong oscillations of infected people around the desirable set-point, defined as the maximum number of hospitalizations acceptable by a given healthcare system. A good understanding of the system reaction to a change of the input control variable can be reasonably achieved using a proportional-integral-derivative controller, widely used in technological applications. In this paper we make use of this basic control theory for understanding the reaction of COVID-19 propagation to social restrictions and for exploiting a very known technology to reduce the epidemic damages through the correct tuning of the containment policy.
bioRxiv
03-06-2020
Preimpreso
Inglés
Público en general
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
Versión publicada
publishedVersion - Versión publicada
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