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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8751| Covid-19 testing strategies and lockdowns: the European closed curves, analysed by “skew-normal” distributions, the forecasts for the UK, Sweden, and the USA, and the ongoing outbreak in Brazil | |
| Stefano De Leo | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.01.20119461 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.01.20119461v1 | |
| As the number of Covid-19 infections worldwide overtakes 6 millions of Total Confirmed Cases (TCC), the data reveal almost closed outbreaks in many European countries. Using the European data as a basis for our analysis, we study the spreading rate of Covid-19 and model the Daily Confirmed Cases and Deaths per Million (DCCpM and DDpM) curves by using “skew-normal” probability density functions. The use of these asymmetrical distributions allows to get a more realistic prediction of the end of the disease in each country and to evaluate the effectiveness of the local authorities strategies in facing the European outbreak. The initial stage of the Brazilian disease is compared with the early phase of the European one. This is done by using the weekly spreading rate of Covid-19. For Sweden, UK, and USA, we shall give a forecast for the end of pandemic and for Brazil the prediction of the peak of DDpM. We also discuss additional factors that could play an important role in the fight against Covid-19, such as the fast response of the local authorities, the testing strategies, the number of beds in the intensive care units, and, last but not least, the measures of isolation adopted. The Brazilian mitigation measures can be placed between the strict lockdown of many European countries and the Swedish approach, but clearly much comparable to the European ones (in particular to the Netherlands). Methods For Brazil, the weekly spreading rates of Covid-19, as more people are getting infected, was used to compare the outbreak in these countries with the ones of the European countries when they were at the same stage of infection. In the early stage of the disease, normal distributions have been used to obtain what we call a dynamic prediction of the peaks. After reaching the peak of daily infections and/or deaths, skew-normal distributions are required to correctly fit the asymmetrical DCCpM and DDpM curves and get a realistic forecast of the pandemic end. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 02-06-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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