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Super-spreading events initiated the exponential growth phase of COVID-19 with ℛ0 higher than initially estimated
Marek Kochanczyk
Frederic Grabowski
Tomasz Lipniacki
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.26.20080788
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20080788v2
The basic reproduction number ℛ0 of the coronavirus disease 2019 has been estimated to range between 2 and 4. Here we used a SEIR model that properly accounts for the distribution of the latent period and, based on empirical estimates of the doubling time in the near-exponential phases of epidemic progression in several locations, we estimated that ℛ0 lies in the range 4.7–11.4. We explained this discrepancy by performing stochastic simulations of model dynamics in a population with a small proportion of super-spreaders. The simulations revealed two-phase dynamics, in which an initial phase of relatively slow epidemic progression diverts to a faster phase upon appearance of infectious super-spreaders. Early estimates obtained for this initial phase may suggest lower ℛ0.
bioRxiv
04-08-2020
Preimpreso
Inglés
Público en general
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
Aparece en las colecciones: Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos

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