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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8695| Estimating effective reproduction number using generation time versus serial interval, with application to COVID-19 in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada | |
| Jesse Knight Sharmistha Mishra | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.24.20109215 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.24.20109215v2 | |
| Background The effective reproduction number Re(t) is a critical measure of epidemic potential. Re(t) can be calculated in near real time using an incidence time series and the generation time distribution—the time between infection events in an infector-infectee pair. In calculating Re(t), the generation time distribution is often approximated by the serial interval distribution—the time between symptom onset in an infector-infectee pair. However, while generation time must be positive by definition, serial interval can be negative if transmission can occur before symptoms, such as in covid-19, rendering such an approximation improper in some contexts. Methods We developed a method to infer the generation time distribution from parametric definitions of the serial interval and incubation period distributions. We then compared estimates of Re(t) for covid-19 in the Greater Toronto Area of Canada using: negative-permitting versus non-negative serial interval distributions, versus the inferred generation time distribution. Results We estimated the generation time of covid-19 to be Gamma-distributed with mean 3.99 and standard deviation 2.96 days. Relative to the generation time distribution, non-negative serial interval distribution caused overestimation of Re(t) due to larger mean, while negative-permitting serial interval distribution caused underestimation of Re(t) due to larger variance. Implications Approximation of the generation time distribution of covid-19 with non-negative or negative-permitting serial interval distributions when calculating Re(t) may result in over or underestimation of transmission potential, respectively. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 27-05-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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