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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8691| European lockdowns and the consequences of relaxation during the COVID-19 pandemic | |
| David Glass | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.19.20106542 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.19.20106542v2 | |
| This paper investigates the lockdowns introduced in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK and also explores the potential consequences of different degrees of relaxation. The analysis employs a two-stage SEIR model with different reproductive numbers pre-and post-lockdown. These parameters are estimated from data on the daily number of confirmed cases in a process that automatically detects the time at which the lockdown became effective. The model is evaluated by considering its predictive accuracy on current data and it is then deployed to explore partial relaxations. The results indicate that the different countries have been successful in reducing the reproductive number to values ranging from 0.67 (95% CI: 0.64 - 0.70) to 0.92 (95% CI: 0.89 - 0.95). Results also suggest that a relaxation of 25% could halt the decline incases in all five countries, while a 50% relaxation could lead to second peaks that are higher and last longer than the earlier peaks in each country. Even though the relaxations so far may have preserved the success of the lockdowns, vigilance is still needed. A relaxation of around 10-15% is recommended if COVID-19 is to continue to decline in all five countries. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 10-06-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| European lockdowns and the consequences of relaxation during the COVID-19 pandemic.pdf | 479.7 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |