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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8685| A phenomenological algorithm for short-range predictions of the Covid-19 pandemic 2020 | |
| Piotr Tadeusz Chru?ciel Sebastian Szybka | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.22.20098350 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.22.20098350v1 | |
| We present an algorithm for dynamical fitting of a logistic curve to the Covid-19 epidemics data, with fit-parameters linearly evolving to the future. We show that the algorithm would have given reasonable short- and medium-range predictions for the mid-range evolution of the epidemics for several countries. We introduce the double-logistic curve, which provides a very good description of the epidemics data at any given time of the epidemics. We analyse the predictability properties of some naive models. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 26-05-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A phenomenological algorithm for short-range predictions of the Covid-19 pandemic 2020.pdf | 9.96 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |