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Flattening the curve and the effect of atypical events on mitigation measures in Mexico: a modeling perspective
Mario Santana Cibrian
MANUEL A. ACUÑA ZEGARRA
Jorge Velasco Hernández
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.21.20109678
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.20109678v1
On 23 and 30 March 2020 the Mexican Federal government implemented social distancing measures to mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic. We use a mathematical model to explore atypical transmission events within the confinement period, triggered by the timing and strength of short time perturbations of social distancing. We show that social distancing measures were successful in achieving a significant reduction of the effective contact rate in the early weeks of the intervention. However, “flattening the curve” had an undesirable effect, since the epidemic peak was delayed too far, almost to the government preset day for lifting restrictions (01 June 2020). If the peak indeed occurs in late May or early June, then the events of children’s day and mother’s day may either generate a later peak (worst case scenario), a long plateau with relatively constant but high incidence (middle case scenario) or the same peak date as in the original baseline epidemic curve, but with a post-peak interval of slower decay.
bioRxiv
23-05-2020
Preimpreso
Inglés
Público en general
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
Versión publicada
publishedVersion - Versión publicada
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