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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8558| A seven-day cycle in COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and mortality rates: Do weekend social interactions kill susceptible people? | |
| itay Ricon Becker Ricardo Tarrasch Pablo Blinder Shamgar Ben-Eliyahu | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089508 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089508v2 | |
| Seven-day cycles in numbers of COVID-19 new-cases and deaths are markedly evident in most public databases (e.g. Worldometer, ECDC), but it is unclear whether they reflect systematic artifacts of delays in information reporting/gathering, or have a more profound basis. To address this question we located 11 databases of US states that provide date- authenticated information (actual date of symptom onset and/or specimen collection, or actual hospitalization or death date) that reported more than 1,000 deaths each. Numbers of new cases showed a weekly cyclic pattern in 10 out of 11 states, commonly peaking on weekdays, 2-6 days after the weekend, corresponding with a reported median 5-day lag between infection and the manifestation of clinical symptoms. We postulate that this pattern emerges from interactions with different and/or extended social-circles during weekends, including increased inter-generational meetings, which in turn facilitate transfer of COVID-19 from younger people to older vulnerable individuals. Furthermore, we found weekly periodicity in hospitalizations in 2 out of 2 authenticated databases providing this information. Actual death date, which is more difficult to attribute to individual choice, and is expected to occur approximately 2-3 weeks following hospitalization, showed significant 7-day periodicity in 1 out of 11 states, and a trend in 2 additional states. If weekly peaks in new cases can be truncated by physical/social distancing, especially during weekends, the mortality of COVID-19 may be reduced, or at least hospitalization and mortality curves may be flattened. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 01-10-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| A seven-day cycle in COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and mortality rates Do weekend social interactions kill susceptible people.pdf | 2.55 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |