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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8528| How many lives can be saved? A global view on the impact of testing, herd immunity and demographics on COVID-19 fatality rates | |
| Miguel Sanchez-Romero Vanessa di Lego Alexia Prskawetz Bernardo Queiroz | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.29.20084400 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.20084400v1 | |
| In this work, we assess the global impact of COVID-19 showing how demographic factors, testing policies and herd immunity are key for saving lives. We extend a standard epidemiological SEIR model in order to: (a) identify the role of demographics (population size and population age distribution) on COVID-19 fatality rates; (b) quantify the maximum number of lives that can be saved according to different testing strategies, different levels of herd immunity, and specific population characteristics; and (d) infer from the observed case fatality rates (CFR) what the true fatality rate might be. Different from previous SEIR model extensions, we implement a Bayesian Melding method in our calibration strategy which enables us to account for data limitation on the total number of deaths. We derive a distribution of the set of parameters that best replicate the observed evolution of deaths by using information from both the model and the data. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 05-05-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| How many lives can be saved A global view on the impact of testing, herd immunity and demographics on COVID-19 fatality rates.pdf | 2.9 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |