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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8524| Random-walk, agent-level pandemic simulation (RAW-ALPS) for analyzing effects of different lockdown measures | |
| Anuj Srivastava | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.29.20084699 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.20084699v2 | |
| This paper develops an agent-level stochastic simulation model, termed RAW-ALPS, for simulating the spread of an epidemic in a confined community. The mechanism of transmission is agent-to-agent contact, using parameters reported for COVID-19 pandemic. When unconstrained, the agents follow independent random walks and catch infections via physical proximity with infected agents. The main goal of the RAW-ALPS simulation is to help quantify effects of preventive measures – timing and durations of lockdowns – on infections, fatalities and recoveries. Three types of lockdown measures are considered: (1) whole population (except essential workers), (2) only the infected agents, and (3) only the symptomatic agents. An infected agent under quarantine can only infect a co-inhabitant, thus causing a decline in infections during lockdowns. The model provides quantifications of changes in infection rates and casualties by imposition and maintenance of restrictive measures in place. The results show that the most effective use of lockdown measures is when all infected agents, including both symptomatic and asymptomatic, are quarantined, while allowing for free movements of all uninfected agents. This calls for regular and extensive testing of the population to isolate and restrict all infected agents. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 30-11-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| Random-walk, agent-level pandemic simulation (RAW-ALPS) for analyzing effects of different lockdown measures.pdf | 3.22 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |