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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8521| Super-spreading events initiated the exponential growth phase of COVID-19 with ℛ0 higher than initially estimated | |
| Marek Kochanczyk Frederic Grabowski Tomasz Lipniacki | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.26.20080788 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20080788v2 | |
| The basic reproduction number ℛ0 of the coronavirus disease 2019 has been estimated to range between 2 and 4. Here we used a SEIR model that properly accounts for the distribution of the latent period and, based on empirical estimates of the doubling time in the near-exponential phases of epidemic progression in several locations, we estimated that ℛ0 lies in the range 4.7–11.4. We explained this discrepancy by performing stochastic simulations of model dynamics in a population with a small proportion of super-spreaders. The simulations revealed two-phase dynamics, in which an initial phase of relatively slow epidemic progression diverts to a faster phase upon appearance of infectious super-spreaders. Early estimates obtained for this initial phase may suggest lower ℛ0. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 04-08-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| Super-spreading events initiated the exponential growth phase of COVID-19 with ℛ0 higher than initially estimated.pdf | 1.17 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |