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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8520| A Method to Identify the Missing COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. and Results for mid-April 2020 | |
| Theodore Richard Breton | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.28.20083782 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.28.20083782v1 | |
| I use the COVID-19 death rate in South Korea and a method relating the ratio of death rates in a U.S. state to its share of cumulative positive tests to estimate the total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. and to estimate the extent of infection and the unidentified share of the infected population in each of the lower-48 states and in New York City in mid-April, 2020. I identify a logarithmic relationship between the cumulative death rate in a state and its cumulative positive share of tests. Using this relationship, I find that 4.3-5.4 million people, 1.4-1.7% of the U.S. population, were infected, with rates of infection that ranged from 0.1% in more rural states to 8-10% in New York state and 11-13% in New York City. Only 16-20% of these infected individuals were identified later through testing. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 05-05-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| A Method to Identify the Missing COVID-19 Cases in the U.S. and Results for mid-April 2020.pdf | 544.73 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |