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Releasing the lockdown in the UK Covid-19 epidemic: a stochastic model | |
Anthony Lander | |
Acceso Abierto | |
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.28.20083329 | |
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.28.20083329v1 | |
Background In a classic epidemic, the infected population has an early exponential phase, before slowing and fading to its peak. Mitigating interventions may change the exponent during the rising phase and a plateau can replace a peak. With interventions comes the risk that relaxation causes a second-wave. In the UK Covid-19 epidemic, infections cannot be counted, but their influence is seen in the curve of the mortality data. This work simulated social distancing and the lockdown in the UK Covid-19 epidemic to explore strategies for relaxation. | |
03-05-2020 | |
Preimpreso | |
Inglés | |
Público en general | |
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
Versión publicada | |
publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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