Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8468| Retrospective analysis of Covid-19 hospitalization modelling scenarios which guided policy response in France | |
| Thomas Starck Maxime Langevin | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.12.16.23300086 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.12.16.23300086v1 | |
| Epidemiological modelling has played a key role in proposing, analyzing and justifying non-pharmaceuticals interventions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite its importance, evaluations of models’ ability to accurately anticipate the evolution of the disease remain scarce. Thus, robust, systematic, and pre-specified evaluation criteria are needed to assess the relevance of modelling scenarios that guided policy response during the pandemic. We conduct a retrospective assessment of modelling reports which guided policy response in France from April 2020 to April 2022. After systematically verifying the scenarios hypotheses (e.g., exclusion of no-lockdown scenarios when a lockdown was effectively in place), we find that epidemiological models were (a) uncertain, (b) unaccurate, and (c) biased towards an overestimation of predicted COVID-19 related hospitalizations. In more than half of the reports, reality is below or equal to even the best-case scenario. To our knowledge, this is the only national systematic retrospective assessment of COVID-19 pandemic scenarios; such an approach should be reproduced in other countries whenever possible. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 17-12-2023 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retrospective analysis of Covid-19 hospitalization modelling scenarios which guided policy response in France.pdf | 1.03 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |