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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8445| Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions | |
| Jonathan Read Jessica Bridgen Derek Cummings Antonia Ho Chris Jewell | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v2 | |
| Since first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95%CI, 2.39–4.13); 58–76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing; Wuhan case ascertainment of 5.0% (3.6–7.4); 21022 (11090–33490) total infections in Wuhan 1 to 22 January. Changes to previous version case data updated to include 22 Jan 2020; we did not use cases reported after this period as cases were reported at the province level hereafter, and large-scale control interventions were initiated on 23 Jan 2020; improved likelihood function, better accounting for first 41 confirmed cases, and now using all infections (rather than just cases detected) in Wuhan for prediction of infection in international travellers; improved characterization of uncertainty in parameters, and calculation of epidemic trajectory confidence intervals using a more statistically rigorous method; extended range of latent period in sensitivity analysis to reflect reports of up to 6 day incubation period in household clusters; removed travel restriction analysis, as different modelling approaches (e.g. stochastic transmission, rather than deterministic transmission) are more appropriate to such analyses. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement JMR and CPJ acknowledge support from the Medical Research Council (MR/5004793/1). JMR acknowledges support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EP/N014499/1). JREB acknowledges support from Faculty of Health and Medicine, Lancaster University in the form of a PhD Scholarship. CPJ acknowledges support from Wellcome. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 28-06-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV.pdf | 824.62 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |