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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8405| The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic: Simulation-Based Assessment of Outbreak Responses and Post Peak Strategies | |
| Jeroen Struben | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063610 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063610v3 | |
| It is critical to understand the impact of distinct policy interventions to the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. I develop a flexible behavioral, dynamic, and sectorial epidemic policy model comprising both endogenous virus transmission and public health and citizen responses. Applicable to the full epidemic cycle including confinement, deconfinement, and resurgence, the model allows exploring the multivariate impact of distinct policy interventions, including general and targeted testing and social contact reduction efforts. Using a cross-sectional calibration to data on the ongoing coronavirus disease outbreak about reported cases and deaths, tests performed, and social interactions from six countries (South Korea, Germany, Italy, France, Sweden, and the United States), I demonstrate how early, rapid, and extensive buildup of testing and social contact reduction efforts interplay to suppress the outbreak. I then use the model to show and quantify limits to the extent of deconfinement and illustrate the critical role of targeted approaches for managing post peak deconfinement and resurgence. To aid necessary public and expert understanding of outbreak control strategies the model is accessible in the form of a web-based management flight simulator. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 17-06-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Pandemic_Simulation-Based Assessment of Outbreak Responses and Post Peak Strategies.pdf | 4.56 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |