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Estimate of the Maximum Limit of Total Cases of Infected Patients COVID-19
Carlos Maximiliano Dutra
Carlos Augusto Riella de Melo
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060822
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060822v1
In this work, we present a method to estimate the maximum limit of total cases COVID-19 cases considering that the time in which the maximum number of new daily cases occurs corresponds to the inflection point of the curve described by the total number of cases that assumed to have a growth according to a logistical function in which the number of total cases at the inflection point will correspond to half of the maximum limit of total cases COVID-19. We estimate this maximum limit for China and South Korea, obtaining results compatible with the observations. And we also estimate for Italy, Germany, United Kingdom, United States and Spain. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement No external funding. Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes
bioRxiv
15-04-2020
Preimpreso
Inglés
Público en general
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
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