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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8325| Predicting the evolution and control of COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal | |
| Ricardo Pais Nuno Taveira | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20046250 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.28.20046250v2 | |
| The Coronavirus (COVID-19) is a world pandemic that has been affecting Portugal since 2 of March 2020. Portuguese government has been making efforts to contradict the exponential growth through social isolation measures. We have developed a mathematical model to predict the impact of such measures in the number of infected cases and peak of infection. We estimate the peak to be around 2 million infected cases by the beginning of May if no additional measures are taken. The model shows that current measures effectively isolated 25-30% of the population, contributing for some reduction on the infection peak. Importantly, our simulations show that the infection burden can be further reduced with higher isolation degree, providing information for a second intervention. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 07-04-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| Predicting the evolution and control of COVID-19 pandemic in Portugal.pdf | 680.01 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |