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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8315| Suppression and Mitigation Strategies for Control of COVID-19 in New Zealand | |
| Alex James Shaun Hendy Michael Plank Nicholas Steyn | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044677 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044677v1 | |
| A standard SEIR-type compartment model, parameterised for New Zealand, was used to simulate the spread of Covid19 in New Zealand and to test the effectiveness of various control strategies. Control aims can be broadly categorised as either suppression or mitigation. Suppression aims to keep cases to an absolute minimum for as long as possible. Mitigation aims to allow a controlled outbreak to occur, with the aim of preventing significant overloads on healthcare systems and gradually allowing the population to develop herd immunity. Both types of strategy are fraught with uncertainty. Suppression strategies can succeed in delaying an outbreak, but only for as long as such control measures can be sustained. Once controls are eased or restricted, an epidemic is likely to follow as no herd immunity has been acquired. The success or failure of mitigation strategies can depend sensitively on the timing and efficacy of control measures, and require the ability to bring rapidly growing outbreaks under immediate control when needed. This is as yet untested even for a combination of national interventions including case isolation, household quarantine, population-wide social distancing and closure of schools and universities. Although there are disadvantages to both types of approach, suppression has the advantage of buying time until a vaccine and/or treatment become available and allowing NZ to learn from rapidly unfolding events in other countries. A combination of successful suppression, strong border measures, and widespread contact tracing and testing resulting in containment could allow periods when control measures can be relaxed, but only if cases are reduced to a handful. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 30-03-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suppression and Mitigation Strategies for Control of COVID-19 in New Zealand.pdf | 1.07 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |