Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8269| Initial Simulation of SARS-CoV2 Spread and Intervention Effects in the Continental US | |
| Sen Pei Jeffrey Shaman | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.21.20040303 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.21.20040303v2 | |
| Abstract Here we use a metapopulation model applied at county resolution to simulate the spread and growth of COVID-19 incidence in the continental United States. We calibrate the model against county-level incidence data collected between February 21, 2020 and March 13, 2020, and estimate epidemiological parameters including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness1. Using the calibrated model, we project the outbreak in the continental US for 180 days after March 13, 2020, and evaluate the effects of social distancing and travel restrictions on the outbreak. Competing Interest Statement JS and Columbia University disclose partial ownership of SK Analytics. JS also discloses consulting for Merck and BNI. Funding Statement This work was supported by US NIH grant GM110748 and Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Contract Number: W911NF-16-2-0035. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the National Institutes of Health or the Department of Defense Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 27-03-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Simulation of SARS-CoV2 Spread and Intervention Effects in the Continental US.pdf | 318.88 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |