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Spatial Visualization of Cluster-Specific COVID-19 Transmission Network in South Korea During the Early Epidemic Phase
James Yeongjun Park
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038638
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038638v2
Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been rapidly spreading throughout China and other countries including South Korea. As of March 12, 2020, a total number of 7,869 cases and 66 deaths had been documented in South Korea. Although the first confirmed case in South Korea was identified on January 20, 2020, the number of confirmed cases showed a rapid growth on February 19, 2020 with a total number of 1,261 cases with 12 deaths based on the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC). Method Using the data of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in South Korea that are publicly available from the KCDC, this paper aims to create spatial visualizations of COVID-19 transmission between January 20, 2020 and February 19, 2020. Results Using spatial visualization, this paper identified two early transmission clusters in South Korea (Daegu cluster and capital area cluster). Using a degree-weighted centrality measure, this paper proposes potential super-spreaders of the virus in the visualized clusters. Conclusion Compared to various epidemiological measures such as the basic reproduction number, spatial visualizations of the cluster-specific transmission networks and the proposed centrality measure may be more useful to characterize super-spreaders and the spread of the virus especially in the early epidemic phase.
bioRxiv
27-03-2020
Preimpreso
Inglés
Público en general
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
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