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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8230| Dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic at constant and time-dependent contact rates | |
| Marek Kochanczyk Frederic Grabowski Tomasz Lipniacki | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035485 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035485v2 | |
| We constructed a simple Susceptible–Infected–Infectious–Excluded model of the spread of COVID-19. The model is parametrised only by the average incubation period, τ, and two rate parameters: contact rate, rC, and exclusion rate, rE. The rates can be manipulated by non-therapeutic interventions and determine the basic reproduction number, R = rC/rE, and, together with τ, the daily multiplication coefficient at the early exponential phase, β. Initial β determines the reduction of rC required to contain epidemic spread. In the long-term, we consider a scenario based on typical social behaviours, in which rC first decreases in response to a surge of daily new cases, forcing people to self-isolate, and then slowly increases when people gradually accept higher risk. Consequently, initial abrupt epidemic spread is followed by a plateau and slow regression. This scenario, although economically and socially devastating, will grant time to develop, produce, and distribute a vaccine, or at least limit daily cases to a manageable number. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement This study was supported by the National Science Centre (Poland) grant 2018/29/B/NZ2/00668 | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 29-03-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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