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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8226| How will COVID-19 persist in the future? Simulating future dynamics of COVID-19 using an agent-based network model | |
| Ethan Roubenoff | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.08.29.23294791 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.08.29.23294791v1 | |
| Despite the United States Center for Disease Control (CDC)’s May 2023 expiration of the declared public health emergency pertaining to the COVID-19 pandemic (Silk 2023), approximately 3 years after the first cases of SARS-CoV-2 appeared in the United Sates, thousands of new cases persist daily. Many questions persist about the future dynamics of SARS-CoV-2’s in the United States, including: will COVID continue to circulate as a seasonal disease like influenza, and will annual vaccinations be required to prevent outbreaks? In response, we present an Agent Based Networked Simulation of COVID-19 transmission to evaluate recurrent future outbreaks of the disease, accounting for contact heterogeneity and waning vaccine-derived and natural immunity. Our model is parameterized with data collected as part of the Berkeley Interpersonal Contact Survey (BICS; Feehan and Mahmud 2021) and is used to simulate time series of confirmed cases of and deaths due to SARS-CoV-2, paying special attention to seasonal forces and waning immunity (Kronfeld-Schor et al. 2021; X. Liu et al. 2021; Nichols et al. 2021). From the BICS ABM model we simulate SARS-CoV-2 dynamics over the 10-year period beginning in 2021 with waning immunity and inclusion of annual booster doses under a variety of transmission scenarios. We find that SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks are likely to occur frequently, and that distribution of booster doses during certain times of the year—notably in the late winter/early spring—may reduce the severity of a wintertime outbreak depending on the seasonal epidemiology of the pathogen. | |
| bioRxiv | |
| 01-09-2023 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| Inglés | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| How will COVID-19 persist in the future_ Simulating future dynamics of COVID-19 using an agent-based network model.pdf | 1.94 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |