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Associations between SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent economic inactivity and employment status: pooled analyses of five linked longitudinal surveys
Richard Shaw
Rebecca Rhead
Richard Silverwood
Jacques Wels
Jingmin Zhu
Olivia Hamilton
Giorgio Di Gessa
Ruth Bowyer
Bettina Moltrecht
Michael Green
Evangelia Demou
Serena Pattaro
Paola Zaninotto
Andy Boyd
Felix Greaves
Nishi Chaturvedi
George Ploubidis
Srinivasa Katikireddi
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.07.31.23293422
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.07.31.23293422v1
Background Following the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, record numbers of people became economically inactive (i.e., neither working nor looking for work, e.g., retired), or non-employed (including unemployed job seekers and economically inactive people). A possible explanation is people leaving the workforce after contracting COVID-19. We aim to investigate whether testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 is related to subsequent economic inactivity and non-employment, among people who were in employment prior to the pandemic. Methods The primary source of data are UK longitudinal population studies linked to English NHS digital data, held by the UK Longitudinal Linkage Collaboration (UK LLC). We pooled data from five studies (1970 British Cohort Study, English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, 1958 National Child Development Study, Next Steps, and Understanding Society), established long before the pandemic with between two and eight follow up surveys during the pandemic. The study population comprised people aged 25-65 years during the study period (March 2020 to March 2021) who were employed pre-pandemic. Outcomes were economic inactivity and non-employment status measured at the time of the last follow-up survey (November 2020 to March 2021, depending on study). For participants who could be linked to NHS England data (n=8,174), COVID-19 infection was indicated by a positive SARS-CoV-2 test. For sensitivity analyses, we used a self-reported measure of COVID-19 infection from participants (n=13,881) in the public use files of the five studies. Potential confounders included sociodemographic variables, pre-pandemic self-rated health and occupational class. Logistic regression models estimated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs). Results In adjusted analyses, testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was very weakly associated with economic inactivity (OR 1.08 95%CI 0.68-1.73) and non-employment status (OR 1.09. 95%CI 0.77-1.55). In sensitivity analyses, self-reported test-confirmed COVID-19 was not associated with either economic inactivity (OR 1.01: 95%CI 0.70 to 1.44) or non-employment status (OR1.03 95%CI 0.79-1.35). Conclusions Among people employed pre-pandemic, testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was either weakly or not associated with increased economic inactivity or exiting employment. Wide confidence intervals limit the ability to make definitive conclusions, but it appears unlikely that COVID-19 disease explains the increase in economic i
bioRxiv
31-07-2023
Preimpreso
Inglés
Público en general
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
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