Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8124
Projecting COVID-19 intensive care admissions in the Netherlands for policy advice: February 2020 to January 2021
Don Klinkenberg
Jantien Backer
Nicolette de Keizer
Jacco Wallinga
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.06.30.23291989
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.06.30.23291989v1
Abstract Introduction: Model projections of COVID-19 incidence into the future help policy makers about decisions to implement or lift control measures. During 2020, policy makers in the Netherlands were informed on a weekly basis with short-term projections of COVID-19 intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. Here we present the model and the procedure by which it was updated. Methods: the projections were produced using an age-structured transmission model. A consistent, incremental update procedure that integrated all new surveillance and hospital data was conducted weekly. First, up-to-date estimates for most parameter values were obtained through re-analysis of all data sources. Then, estimates were made for changes in the age-specific contact rates in response to policy changes. Finally, a piecewise constant transmission rate was estimated by fitting the model to reported daily ICU admissions, with a change point analysis guided by Akaike's Information Criterion. Results: The model and update procedure allowed us to make mostly accurate weekly projections, accounting for recent and future policy changes, and to adapt the estimated effectiveness of the policy changes based only on the natural accumulation of incoming data. Discussion: The model incorporates basic epidemiological principles and most model parameters were estimated per data source. Therefore, it had potential to be adapted to a more complex epidemiological situation, as it would develop after 2020.
bioRxiv
03-07-2023
Preimpreso
Inglés
Público en general
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
Appears in Collections:Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos

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