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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/8022| A New Vaccination Assessment Method and Strategy for COVID-19 | |
| james Michaelson | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.04.14.23288579 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.04.14.23288579v1 | |
| Optimizing vaccination to reduce COVID-19 death remains a challenge. A new method, Gompertzian Analysis, examines numbers of infectious disease cases and deaths, by age, on log graphs, capturing COVID-19 Lethality (Deaths/Cases) by the Gompertz Mortality Equation. Gompertzian Analysis revealed that each of the first 4 Vaccination Events (primary and boosters) led to a ∼1/3rd reduction in COVID-19 Lethality. These vaccination reductions in COVID-19 Lethality were cumulative, persistent, and undiminished by variants, while vaccination’s impact on COVID-19 Infectivity (Cases/Population) was fleeting. Primary vaccination and 3 boosters gave an ∼85% reduction in COVID-19 Lethality, with projections suggesting ∼68% fewer deaths (∼267,000 to ∼85,000). Projections also suggest that 6 boosters may offer a ∼96% reduction in COVID-19 Lethality, to the familiar level of influenza, with a ∼91% reduction in COVID-19 deaths, to ∼25,000, fewer than automobile deaths. Gompertzian Analysis provides rational vaccination guidelines by age. Gompertzian Analysis points to a strategy molded by multiple vaccinations reducing COVID-19 Lethality, which is persistent, rather than focusing on reducing COVID-19 Infectivity, which is fleeting. Such a strategy, based on accumulating the necessary number of vaccinations (∼7), and possibly no more, would accept vaccination’s limited ability to prevent infection in exchange for its power to prevent death. | |
| medRxiv | |
| 15-04-2023 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org | |
| Inglés | |
| Epidemia COVID-19 | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Materiales de Consulta y Comunicados Técnicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A new Vaccination Assessment.pdf | 912.11 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |