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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/7683| Community vaccination can shorten the COVID-19 isolation period: an individual-based modeling approach | |
| Chayanin Sararat Jidchanok Wangkanai Chaiwat Wilasang Tanakorn Chantanasaro Charin Modchang | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.02.08.22270668 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.08.22270668v1 | |
| Background: Isolation of infected individuals and quarantine of their contacts are usually employed to mitigate the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. While 14-day isolation of infected individuals could effectively reduce the risk of subsequence transmission, it also significantly impacts the patient's financial, psychological, and emotional well-being. It is, therefore, vital to investigate how the isolation duration could be shortened when effective vaccines are available and in what circumstances we can live with COVID-19 without isolation and quarantine. Methods: An individual-based modeling approach was employed to estimate the likelihood of secondary infections and the likelihood of an outbreak following the isolation of an index case for a range of isolation periods. Our individual-based model integrates the viral load and infectiousness profiles of vaccinated and unvaccinated infected individuals. The effects of waning vaccine-induced immunity against Delta and Omicron variant transmission were also investigated. Results: In the baseline scenario in which all individuals are unvaccinated, and no nonpharmaceutical interventions are employed, there is a chance of about 3% that an unvaccinated index case will make at least one secondary infection after being isolated for 14 days, and a sustained chain of transmission can occur with a chance of less than 1%. We found that at the outbreak risk equivalent to that of 14-day isolation in the baseline scenario, the isolation duration can be shortened to 7.33 days (95% CI 6.68-7.98) if 75% of people in the community are fully vaccinated during the last three months. In the best-case scenario in which all individuals in the community are fully vaccinated, isolation of infected individuals may no longer be necessary, at least during the first three months after being fully vaccinated, indicating that booster vaccination may be required after being fully vaccinated for three to four months. Finally, our simulations showed that the reduced vaccine effectiveness against Omicron variant transmission does not much affect the risk of an outbreak if the vaccine effectiveness against infection is maintained at a high level via booster vaccination. Conclusions: The isolation duration of a vaccine breakthrough infector could be safely shortened if a majority of people in the community are immune to SARS-CoV-2 infection. A booster vaccination may be necessary three months after full vaccination to keep the outbreak risk low. | |
| medRxiv and bioRxiv | |
| 09-02-2022 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/ | |
| Inglés | |
| Epidemia COVID-19 | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Community vaccination can shorten the COVID 19 isolation period.pdf | 2.48 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |