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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/5596| Modeling COVID-19 epidemics in an Excel spreadsheet: Democratizing the access to first-hand accurate predictions of epidemic outbreaks | |
| Alvarez, Mario Moises. Gonzalez-Gonzalez, Everardo. Trujillo-de Santiago, Grissel. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.23.20041590 | |
| We present a simple epidemiological model that is amenable to implementation in Excel spreadsheets and sufficiently accurate to reproduce observed data on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemics in different regions (i.e., Italy, Spain, and New York City). We also show that the model can be adapted to closely follow the evolution of COVID-19 in any large city by simply adjusting two parameters related to (a) population density and (b) aggressiveness of the response from a society/government to epidemics. Moreover, we show that this simple epidemiological simulator can be used to assess the efficacy of the response of a government/society to an outbreak. We believe that the simplicity and accuracy of this model will greatly contribute to democratizing the availability of knowledge in societies regarding the extent of an epidemic event and the efficacy of a governmental response. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.23.20041590v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| 1109516.pdf | 3.5 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |