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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/3985| Modelling the COVID-19 epidemics in Brasil: Parametric identification and public health measures influence | |
| Cotta Renato Machado. Naveira-Cotta Carolina Palma. magal pierre. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.31.20049130 | |
| A SIRU-type epidemic model is proposed for the prediction of COVID-19 spreading within Brasil, and analyse the influence of public health measures on simulating the control of this infectious disease. Since the reported cases are typically only a fraction of the total number of the symptomatic infectious individuals, the model accounts for both reported and unreported cases. Also, the model allows for the time variation of both the transmission rate and the fraction of asymptomatic infectious that become reported symptomatic individuals, so as to reflect public health interventions, towards its control, along the course of the epidemic evolution. An analytical exponential behaviour for the accumulated reported cases evolution is assumed at the onset of the epidemy, for explicitly estimating initial conditions, while a Bayesian inference approach is adopted for parametric estimations employing the present direct problem model with the data from the known portion of the epidemics evolution, represented by the time series for the reported cases of infected individuals. The direct-inverse problem analysis is then employed with the actual data from China, with the first half been employed for the parametric estimation and the second half for validation of the predictive capability of the proposed approach. The full dataset for China is then employed in another parameter identification, including the average times that asymptomatic infectious individuals and that symptomatic individuals are infectious. Following this validation, the available data on reported cases in Brasil from February 15th till March 29th, 2020, is used for estimating parameters and then predict the epidemy evolution under these conditions. Finally, public health interventions are simulated, aimed at diminishing the effects of the disease spreading, by acting on both the transmission rate and the fraction of the total number of the symptomatic infectious individuals, considering time variable exponential behaviours for these two parameters, usually assumed constant in epidemic evolutions without intervention. It is demonstrated that a combination of actions to affect both parameters can have a much faster and effective result in the control of the epidemy dynamics. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/03/2020.03.31.20049130.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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