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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/393| Using early data to estimate the actual infection fatality ratio from COVID-19 in France | |
| Julien Papaix Antoine Sar Lionel Roques Samuel Soubeyrand Etienne Klein | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.22.20040915 | |
| The first cases of COVID-19 in France were detected on January 24, 2020. The number of screening tests carried out and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the actual number of cases and the infection fatality ratio (IFR). We develop a 'mechanistic-statistical' approach coupling a SIR ODE model describing the unobserved epidemiological dynamics, a probabilistic model describing the data acquisition process and a statistical inference method. The objective of this model is not to make forecasts but to estimate the actual number of people infected with COVID-19 during the observation window in France and to deduce the IFR associated with the epidemic in France. Main results. The actual number of infected cases in France is probably higher than the observations: we find here a factor x5 (95%-CI: 3.5-7.8) which leads to an IFR in France of 0.5% (95%-CI: 0.3-0.8). Although accurate in France, the SIR model cannot capture the decline in the number of cases observed in South Korea: this points out the strong impact on the epidemic dynamics of the management strategy adopted in South Korea. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was funded by INRAE ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All of the data in this manuscript are available from public sources: Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering, Santé publique France, and Korean Center for Disease Control <https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040915v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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