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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/379| Mitigation and herd immunity strategy for COVID-19 is likely to fail | |
| Sara Ryfczynska Thomas Goetz Viktor Bezborodov Marcin Bodych Tyll Krueger Ewaryst Rafajlowicz Barbara Adamik Agata Migalska Ewa Szczurek Barbara Pabjan Ewa Skubalska-Rafajlowicz Jan Pablo Burgard Marek Bawiec Piotr Szymanski Wolfgang Bock Tomasz Ozanski Wojciech Rafajlowicz, | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.25.20043109 | |
| On the basis of a semi-realistic SIR microsimulation for Germany and Poland, we show that the R parameter interval for which the COVID-19 epidemic stays overcritical but below the capacity limit of the health care system to reach herd immunity is so narrow that a successful implementation of this strategy is likely to fail. Our microsimulation is based on official census data and involves household composition and age distribution as the main population structure variables. Outside household contacts are characterised by an out-reproduction number R* which is the only free parameter of the model. For a subcritical domain we compute the time till extinction and prevalence as a function of the initial number of infected individuals and R*. For the Polish city of Wroclaw we also discuss the combined impact of testing coverage and contact reduction. For both countries we estimate R* for disease progression until 20th of March 2020. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement We would like to thank the University of Science and Technology Wroclaw, the University of Wroclaw and the Medical University of Wroclaw for their support and assistance to the MOCOS group. We also thank the City of Wroclaw, Nokia Wroclaw, EY GDS Poland and MicroscopeIT for their support. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The data we used is either open source or as the census data from the countries we used was provided from the state of Germany and Poland resp. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20043109v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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|---|---|---|---|
| Mitigation and herd inmmunity.pdf | 2.44 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |