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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/365| Importance of suppression and mitigation measures in managing COVID-19 outbreaks | |
| Michael E. Hochberg | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.31.20048835 | |
| I employ a simple mathematical model of an epidemic process to evaluate how three basic quantities: the reproduction number (R), the number of infectious individuals (I), and total community size (N) affect strategies to control COVID-19. Numerical simulations show that strict suppression measures at the beginning of an epidemic can create low infectious numbers, which thereafter can be managed by mitigation measures over longer periods to flatten the epidemic curve. The stronger the suppression measure, the faster it achieves the low levels of exposed and infectious numbers that are conducive to subsequent management. Our results point to a two-step control strategy that begins with some level of confinement to reduce R below 1, followed by sufficient mitigation measures that manage the epidemic by maintaining R at approximately 1. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No external funding was received. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data referred to in the manuscript is available upon request <https://github.com/gabgoh/epcalc> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.20048835v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Importance of suppression.pdf | 434.93 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |