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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/354| COVID-19 epidemic: Power law spread and flattening of the curve | |
| Ali Asad Soumyadeep Chatterjee Mahendra K. Verma | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.02.20051680 | |
| In this letter we analyze the real-time infection data of COVID-19 epidemic for nine nations. We observe that till 27 March 2020, the number of infected individuals (I(t)) in USA, Spain, Germany, Iran, France, and India are growing exponentially. On the contrary, I(t) curves for China and South Korea exhibits power law behavior before flattening of the curve. The derivative I(t), which is also the daily infection count, is proportional to I(t) for the exponential regime, but not for the power law regime. These valuable indicators could be used for epidemic forecast. We also argue that long-term community transmission and/or the transmission by asymptomatic carriers traveling long distances may be inducing the power law growth of the epidemic. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement Ali Asad is sup- ported by Indo-French (CEFIPRA) project 6104-1, and Soumyadeep Chatterjee is supported by INSPIRE fellow- ship (IF180094) of Department of Science & Technology, India. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes We used the data given publicly on WorldOMeter, URL https://www.worldometers.info/ coronavirus/. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051680v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 pandemic.pdf | 1.19 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |