Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/3471| The COVID-19 infection in Italy: a statistical study of an abnormally severe disease | |
| Ferragamo Antonio. Marchitelli Vito. Piccolo Andrea. Scala Antonio. Somma Renato. Spina Emanuele. Troise Claudia. De Natale Giuseppe. Ricciardi Valerio. De Luca Gabriele. De Natale Dario. Di Meglio Giovanni. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.28.20046243 | |
| We statistically investigate the Coronavirus Disease 19 (hereinafter Covid-19) epidemics, which is particularly invasive in Italy. We show that the high apparent mortality (or Case Fatality Ratio, CFR) observed in Italy, as compared with other countries, is likely biased by a strong underestimation of infected cases. To give a more realistic estimate of the mortality of Covid-19, we use the most recent estimates of the IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio) of epidemic, based on the minimum observed CFR, and furthermore analyse data obtained from the ship Diamond Princess, a good representation of a laboratory case-study from an isolated system in which all the people have been tested. From such analyses we derive more realistic estimates of the real extension of the infection, as well as more accurate indicators of how fast the infection propagates. We then point out from the various explanations proposed, the dominant factors causing such an abnormal seriousness of the disease in Italy. Finally, we use the deceased data, the only ones estimated to be reliable enough, to predict the total number of infected people and the interval of time when the infection in Italy could stop. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/01/2020.03.28.20046243.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1104315.pdf | 2.18 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |