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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/3449| COVID-19 epidemic: Power law spread and flattening of the curve | |
| Verma Mahendra K. Asad Ali. Chatterjee Soumyadeep. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.02.20051680 | |
| In this paper, we analyze the real-time infection data of COVID-19 epidemic for nine nations. Our analysis is up to 7 April 2020. For China and South Korea, who have already flattened their infection curves, the number of infected individuals (I(t)) exhibits power-law behavior before flattening of the curve. Italy has transitioned to the power-law regime for some time. For the other six nations-USA, Spain, Germany, France, Japan, and India-a power-law regime is beginning to appear after exponential growth. We argue that the transition from an exponential regime to a power-law regime may act as an indicator for flattening of the epidemic curve. We also argue that long-term community transmission and/or the transmission by asymptomatic carriers traveling long distances may be inducing the power-law growth of the epidemic. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/06/2020.04.02.20051680.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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