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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/299| Immunologic and epidemiologic drivers of norovirus transmission in daycare and school outbreaks | |
| Claire P Mattison Joseph NS Eisenberg Joshua Havumaki David W Hutton Aron J Hall Ismael R Ortega-Sanchez Benjamin A Lopman Marisa C Eisenberg | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2019.12.19.19015396 | |
| Background: Norovirus outbreaks are notoriously explosive, with dramatic symptomology and rapid disease spread. Children are particularly vulnerable to infection and drive norovirus transmission due to their high contact rates with each other and the environment. Despite the explosive nature of norovirus outbreaks, attack rates in schools and daycares remain low with the majority of students not reporting symptoms. Methods: We explore immunologic and epidemiologic mechanisms that may underlie epidemic norovirus transmission dynamics using a disease transmission model. Towards this end, we compared different model scenarios, including innate resistance and acquired immunity (collectively denoted 'immunity'), stochastic extinction, and an individual exclusion intervention. We calibrated our model to daycare and school outbreaks from national surveillance data. Results: Recreating the low attack rates observed in daycare and school outbreaks required a model with immunity. However, immunity alone resulted in shorter duration outbreaks than what was observed. The addition of individual exclusion (to the immunity model) extended outbreak durations by reducing the amount of time that symptomatic people contribute to transmission. Including both immunity and individual exclusion mechanisms resulted in simulations where both attack rates and outbreak durations were consistent with surveillance data. Conclusions: The epidemiology of norovirus outbreaks in daycare and school settings cannot be well described by a simple transmission model in which all individuals start as fully susceptible. Interventions should leverage population immunity and encourage more rigorous individual exclusion to improve venue-level control measures. ### Competing Interest Statement Dr. Lopman reports personal fees from Takeda Pharmaceuticals, CDC Foundation, and Hall Booth Smith, P.C. outside the submitted work. ### Funding Statement This Study was funded by the Joint Initiative for Vaccine Economics, Phase 5, a cooperative agreement between the University of Michigan and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (U01IP000965). Additionally, this study was funded by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (U01GM110712). ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The surveillance datasets are available from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention upon request and application. Computing code available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2019 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2019.12.19.19015396v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inmunologic and epidemiologic drivers.pdf | 1.6 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |