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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/2687| Importance of suppression and mitigation measures in managing COVID-19 outbreaks | |
| Hochberg Michael E.. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.31.20048835 | |
| I employ a simple mathematical model of an epidemic process to evaluate how three basic quantities: the reproduction number (R), the number of infectious individuals (I), and total community size (N) affect strategies to control COVID-19. Numerical simulations show that strict suppression measures at the beginning of an epidemic can create low infectious numbers, which thereafter can be managed by mitigation measures over longer periods to flatten the epidemic curve. The stronger the suppression measure, the faster it achieves the low numbers of infections that are conducive to subsequent management. Our results on short-term strategies point to either a two-step control strategy, following failed mitigation, that begins with suppression of the reproduction number, Rc, below 1.0, followed by renewed mitigation measures that manage the epidemic by maintaining Rc at approximately 1.0, or should suppression not be feasible, a progressive lowering of Rc below 1.0. The full sequence of measures that we are observing in a number of countries, and likely to see in the longer term, can be symbolically represented as: R0 → Rc | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/04/02/2020.03.31.20048835.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| 1102407.pdf | 302.4 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |