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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/241| It's risky to wander in September: modelling the epidemic potential of Rift Valley fever in a Sahelian setting | |
| Assane Gueye Fall Modou Moustapha Lo Hélène Cecilia Pauline Ezanno Raphaëlle Métras Renaud Lancelot | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.25.20027821 | |
| Estimating the epidemic potential of vector-borne diseases, along with the relative contribution of underlying mechanisms, is crucial for animal and human health worldwide. In West African Sahel, several outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) have occurred over the last decades, but uncertainty remains about the conditions necessary to trigger these outbreaks. We use the basic reproduction number ( R ) as a measure of RVF epidemic potential in northern Senegal, and map its value in two distinct ecosystems, namely the Ferlo and the Senegal river delta and valley. We consider three consecutive rainy seasons (July-November 2014, 2015 and 2016) and account for several vector and animal species. Namely, we parametrize our model with estimates of Aedes vexans arabiensis, Culex poicilipes, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, cattle, sheep and goats abundances. The impact of RVF virus introduction is assessed every week, in 4367 pixels of 3,5km2. The results of our analysis indicate that September was the month with highest epidemic potential in each study area, while at-risk locations varied between seasons. We show that decreased vector densities do not highly reduce R and that cattle immunity has a greater impact on reducing transmission than small ruminants immunity. The host preferences of vectors and the temperature-dependent time interval between their blood meals are crucial parameters needing further biological investigations. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was part of the FORESEE project funded by INRAE metaprogram GISA (Integrated Management of Animal Health). Helene Cecilia was funded by INRAE, Région Pays de la Loire, and CIRAD. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Input data and scripts are available online <http://sourcesup.renater.fr/www/rvf-r0-senegal/> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.25.20027821v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| its risky to wander in september.pdf | 1.36 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |