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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/2403| Analyzing the World-Wide Impact of Public Health Interventions on the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 | |
| George Mohler. Frederic Schoenberg. Martin B. Short. Daniel Sledge. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.01714v1.pdf | |
| We analyze changes in the reproduction number, R, of COVID-19 in response to public health interventions. Our results indicate that public health measures undertaken in China reduced R from 1.5 in January to 0.4 in mid-March 2020. They also suggest, however, the limitations of isolation, quarantine, and large-scale attempts to limit travel. While the world-wide reproduction number briefly dropped below 1 as China implemented extensive public health measures, the introduction of the virus to other nations swiftly led to an increasing world-wide average value of R. In Italy, the nation hardest-hit following China, social distancing measures brought the local value of R down from 3.71 to 2.51. Nonetheless, the value of R in Italy persisted at levels well above 1, allowing for ongoing transmission. By mid-March 2020, as COVID-19 spread in areas without extensive public health interventions in place, the world-wide value of R increased to a level similar to that of late January. | |
| arxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.01714v1.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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