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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/2340| Optimal, near-optimal, and robust epidemic control | |
| Dylan H. Morris. Fernando W. Rossine. Joshua B. Plotkin. Simon A. Levin. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.02209v1.pdf | |
| The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for control measures that reduce the epidemic peak ("flattening the curve"). Here we derive the optimal time-limited intervention for reducing peak epidemic prevalence in the standard Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. We show that alternative, more practical interventions can perform nearly as well as the provably optimal strategy. However, none of these strategies are robust to implementation errors: mistiming the start of the intervention by even a single week can be enormously costly, for realistic epidemic parameters. Sustained control measures, though less efficient than optimal and near-optimal time-limited interventions, can be used in combination with time-limited strategies to mitigate the catastrophic risks of mistiming. | |
| arxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.02209v1.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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