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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/207| The lockdown of Hubei Province causing different transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan and Beijing | |
| Xumao Zhao Yuehua Sun Xinhai Li | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.09.20021477 | |
| Background: After the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) starting in late 2019, a number of researchers have reported the predicted the virus transmission dynamics. However, under the strict control policy the novel coronavirus does not spread naturally outside Hubei Province, and none of the prediction closes to the real situation. Methods and findings: We used the traditional SEIR model, fully estimated the effect of control measures, to predict the virus transmission in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei Province, and Beijing. We forecast that the outbreak of 2019-nCoV would reach its peak around March 6±10 in Wuhan and March 20±16 in Beijing, respectively. The infectious population in Beijing would be much less (only 0.3%) than those in Wuhan at the peak of this transmission wave. The number of confirmed cases in cities inside Hubei Province grow exponentially, whereas those in cities outside the province increase linearly. Conclusions: The unprecedented province lockdown substantially suspends the national and global outbreak of 2019-nCoV. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement None. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes To make our analysis repeatable, we posted all the data used in this study and R code for the SEIR model at the Github server. <https://github.com/Xinhai-Li/2019-nCoV.> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.09.20021477v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| the lockdown of hubei.pdf | 954.79 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |