Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/1962| Why differential equation based models fail to describe the dynamics of epidemics? | |
| Z. Fodor. S. D. Katz. T. G. Kovacs. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.07208v1.pdf | |
| It is of vital importance to understand and track the dynamics of rapidly unfolding epidemics. The health and economic consequences of the current COVID-19 pandemic provide a poignant case. Here we demonstrate that a class of widely used models is fundamentally flawed and cannot account for some important features of the viral spread. We suggest an integral equation based method that can be implemented in most of the reported models. Taking the example of COVID-19 data for New York City, we show that our model yields a significantly larger estimate for the initial basic reproduction rate than other models, much more accurately accounts for the dynamics of the epidemic after restrictive public congregation measures were introduced, and provides a novel way to determine the incubation period. We suggest that no decisions about public health or economic measures should be based on any unimproved model. | |
| arxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.07208v1.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1100672.pdf | 247.34 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |